"我現在該買甚麼?"
理用系統分析來控制你的投資組合
歡迎您到分析王的網站。這個網站為台灣基金投資者設計的。
Go to our website http://fundking.com.tw/ which is geared toward the Taiwan based mutual fund investor.
We will be ready soon and adding pages for ETFs, Commodities and Currencies.
© 2009 分析王有限公司, All rights reserved
The following information is provided as research only. The company is not an investment advisor and does not seek to provide investment advice or to solicit trades. While the opinions expressed are based on information believed reliable at the time, no warranty of accuracy can or should be assumed. Investments can go down as well as up.
本網站提供的資料作為研究之用。該公司不是投資顧問公司，不提供投資建議而不收投資買賣的單子。雖然表達的意見是根據當時我們認為可靠的資料，我們沒有辦法保證外面信息來源的真實性。投資可跌可升。
分析王「系統」或多元化的「買進並持有」，那個好?
看上面兩條線，這個問題很容易回答。
說明為甚麼之前，我們先講幾句關於上面兩條線的來源。
多元化投資組合的來源不是莫名其妙的。我們按照金融業很流行的「買進並持有」口號平均持有我們台灣系統用的基金範圍。
雖然分析王系統投資組合也利用同樣的範圍，系統隨時持有排前三名的基金分類。
結果呢？
2005到3Q2007多頭市場,兩個投資策略都能用。分析王系統的表現超過交易成本。不過金融市場不穩定的時候，表現差更多。空頭市場兩個都賠錢但是分別很大。
為甚麼?
電子書裡寫了更詳細的.簡單地說有兩個原因：
- 效率市場理論是一個漂亮的理論而已。
- 多元化的效果不如宣傳。
"The System" or a diversified "Buy and Hold" strategy: which is better?
If you look at the two lines above, the answer is not difficult.
Before we look at why the performance diverged, let's first look at how these two lines were created.
The diversified portfolio is not a mystery. We used the popular "Buy and Hold" slogan to hold an equal weighting in our investment universe.
Even though we used the exact same universe for "The System", we chose to only hold the top 3 (out of 22) fund sectors at any one time.
And the Result?
Under the fairly bullish conditions from 2005 through 3Q of 2007, both strategies yielded satisfactory results. The System was able to outperform despite higher trading related costs. When markets turned choppy in the last quarter of 2007, the System's outperformance starts to show through. In the flat out bear market, both strategies will take losses but the System does a much better job of protecting previous gains.
Why?
Our E-Book goes into more detail but there are two simple reasons:
- Efficient Market Theory is basically just a nice-sounding theory.
- Diversification does not work as promised.
