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理用系統分析來控制你的投資組合
歡迎您到分析王的網站。這個網站為台灣基金投資者設計的。
Go to our website http://fund-king.com.tw/ which is geared toward the Taiwan based mutual fund investor.
We will be ready soon and adding pages for ETFs, Commodities and Currencies.
© 2009 分析王有限公司, All rights reserved
The following information is provided as research only. The company is not an investment advisor and does not seek to provide investment advice or to solicit trades. While the opinions expressed are based on information believed reliable at the time, no warranty of accuracy can or should be assumed. Investments can go down as well as up.
本網站提供的資料作為研究之用。該公司不是投資顧問公司，不提供投資建議而不收投資買賣的單子。雖然表達的意見是根據當時我們認為可靠的資料，我們沒有辦法保證外面信息來源的真實性。投資可跌可升。
暴風雨前的平靜？
第一季最後一個月開始了，金融市場都很平靜。全球金融危機和去年三到十二月反彈兩個暴風雨已經過了。投資者緊張地掃描金融的地平線。
從樂觀點開始，全球政治家都不願意接受金融業的痛苦。受到偏愛的金融機構會繼續受惠於特低利率和保證流動性。看高盛去年的財務報告可以算責任成本為1.3％。如果成本達到4％的化，營業利潤就不見了。跟中小企業或消費者信貸成本比的化，政策就很明顯：金融業利潤是非保護不行的。
悲觀焦點就是公共部門的限制。媒體關注，因為希臘的問題，很注意到歐元的困難。不過全球經濟風險也許來自中國大陸。
先談為甚麼希臘危機不會破壞歐元。在歐盟國家的政治和經濟，希臘不算甚麼。德法兩國都不願思考歐元解體。兩國已經準備解決希臘財政危機。兩國都了解希臘救助以後，一定會幾個請求支持的國家在排隊。下一個國家是誰？西班牙ETF (EWP) 在我們幾個組合排很後面。避險基金有沒有能力達到美歐一比一的目標？很難講，但是美金多頭ETF (UUP) 排系統前面的位子而歐元ETF(FXE) 排後面所以已經有不少的勢頭。
為甚麼要擔心中國大陸？中國經濟增長保持率高，外匯儲備是全球最高的(美元2.4兆, 占全球27%)，何必怕甚麼？問題就是中國去年經濟增長的內容：都來自國有銀行信貸。結果北京職位空缺率接近50%。透明辦公大樓是中國大陸決策者都能看到的。新聞報導指出，有的省政府已經感受到了信貸緊縮。今年貸款水平不會高於去牟的。美國出口市場反彈還要等多久？上海股市指數很接近200天移動平均線。突破200天那條線，不只是大陸股市。亞洲，特別是香港股市一定會受負面影響。中國大陸ETF (FXI) 排系統後面。中國反彈有哪些指標呢？看商品市場就知道了。到目前商品市場沒有方向。
投資者該怎麼辦？全部跑到現全不行。系統指出，美國和各個新興市場比發達歐洲，亞洲還要強。企業分類的化，很多組合看好製藥，保健，生物技術等。消費者趨勢在幾個組會排得比較高但可持續性還是問題。
債券的化雖然美國日本國庫強(投資者怕歐盟英國) ，系統喜歡高收益的公司債。
商品沒有方向。黃金(GLD)也許比白銀(SLV)好一些。原油(OIL)多頭(中東政治不穩定) 和空頭(全球經濟不景氣) 是平衡的。油價停留在美金$80。
貨幣市場只有美金(UUP) 和日圓(FXY) 才會看到一點勢頭。
Becalmed
As we start the last month of the first quarter, the investment outlook is decidedly muted. The storms of the Global Financial Crisis and the massive rebound from March to December of last year have past. Now, we investors look nervously to the horizon to see what is coming next.
On the positive side for asset values, there is no political appetite for pain in the financial markets. Interest rates will be kept at very low levels and liquidity will keep flowing to favored financial institutions. A simple teardown of last year’s numbers for Goldman Sachs suggests that interest expenses averaged 1.3%. Had they been compelled to pay an average interest rate of just 4%, 2009 operating earnings would have been wiped out. When compared with what consumers and small businesses are being asked to pay for credit, if available at all, it is clear that governments are going to do everything in their power to ensure that the major financial players are profitable.
On the negative side, cracks are forming in the public sector defenses that the major economies have put in place. The Euro has received the most press because of the Greek situation. But, the real problems appear to be brewing in China.
Let’s start with why Greece does not spell the end of the Euro. First, it is a small part of the European Union both politically and economically. For Germany and France, the breakup of the Euro is not a political option and they will accept unpalatable solutions (a bailout). It will be painful for Germany in particular because there is little doubt that a Greek bailout will prompt other countries to ask for support. Who’s next? The Spanish ETF (EWP) is dragging at the bottom of several portfolios. Will hedge funds manage to pound the Euro down to parity with the US dollar? The Euro ETF (FXE) is right down in the basement with the Spanish ETF while the US dollar bullish ETF (UUP) is our top ranking currency ETF this week.
Now why worry about China? After all, it is sitting on a huge pile of forex reserves and is able to lecture US Treasury officials while its economy grows at a stunning 8% clip. The issue is how China’s 2009 growth was achieved and how much longer it can wait for the US import machine to start up again. Last year’s growth was driven by massive state directed lending which has led to “see through” office buildings in Beijing (within sight of policy makers). Already there are indications at the provincial government level that some of the taps have been turned off and that this year’s new lending volumes cannot possibly keep pace with last year’s. With export growth still well off the 2007 pace, is there any wonder why the Chinese are not keen to raise the valuing of the RMB? The Shanghai Composite is close to breaking through its 200 day moving average, a warning sign for the local market as well as other Asian markets (Hong Kong, EWH, in particular). The main China ETF (FXI) is at the lower end of the rankings for our international portfolios. When will things turn around for China? The first indications will come from the commodity sector. After falling in the first weeks of the year, commodities appear directionless for the time being.
So what should investors do? Hiding out in cash is not indicated right now. In general, we are seeing more strength in the US markets (flight to safety?) and select emerging markets relative to developed Europe and Asia. In terms of sectors, a number of portfolios are still picking up strength in Pharmaceuticals (XPH), Health Care (XLV) and Biotechnology (XBI). The US consumer sector still has momentum in it but with high unemployment likely to persist for several more quarters, this may just be a reaction to US 4th quarter GDP numbers, which were due to inventory restocking, or hope that this year’s 4th quarter will be the start of sustainable consumer growth. US GDP growth is likely to be lower for 2nd and 3rd quarter.
In fixed income, there was strength in US Treasuries this week as some investors decided to hide from the mess in the EU and UK but the strength going forward is in Corporate High Yield. Some of that strength is coming from the money center banks and hedge funds that are looking to pick up yield in assets that can quickly be shipped over to the FED if liquidity becomes a problem in the future.
Commodities are directionless. Some of our more sensitive portfolios suggest that Gold might make a small move (the GLD/SLV trade looks set to push back in Gold’s favor) but industrial metals are becalmed as we noted in our section on China. Oil is struggling to break through $80 resistance as slack economic demand and normal political instability have balanced out bulls and bears.
As for currencies, the only interest (one could hardly call it excitement) is in the US dollar (UUP)and Japanese Yen (FXY).
